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Follow @mlbreportsWednesday May 1,2013
After a hot start to the 2013 campaign, Francisco Cervelli has broken his hand and added his name to the long list of Yankee injuries in 2013. The man worked his way back to the Majors and won the Yankee starting job out of training camp. Now only time will tell whether Cervelli can return from injury with the same skill that he opened the season.
By Nicholas Rossoletti (Yankees Correspondent/Trade Correspondent): Follow @nross56
The end of April was supposed to signal the beginning of the end of the Yankee injury woes. Upon breaking camp, it was thought that Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira would all be returning in the next week or two.
Now, it has become clear that the Yankee injury woes are just beginning.
As discussed in last week’s piece, Jeter’s set-back already has extended his time table until the middle of July at the earliest. Big Tex has been unable to meet his time table as well and is not prepared to take live swings yet.
Granderson is the only player on track to return from injury based on the original timeframe. Grandy is slated to return in at some point in May.
Frankie Being Frankie:
After breaking down his numbers for the last several weeks in the “Down on the Farm” piece, Austin Romine gets his day in the Bronx this week. He will replace Francisco Cervelli on the Yankees’ active roster for the next six weeks. We will see how the Yankees decide to split their Catching responsibilities, but it is a good bet that Romine will see his fair share of work.
While one Yankee gets ready to make his return, two more Yankees have found their way onto the Disabled List. Francisco Cervelli, who has taken on the role of the starting backstop for the Yanks, caught a foul tip off his hand, and as Yankee luck would have it, the foul tip broke his hand.
Cervelli is out for a minimum of six weeks and will require surgery to fix his hand. It is a tremendous blow to the man and the Yankees. The 27-year old Catcher was finally putting it all together at the big league level.
Cervelli’s numbers were even better than his 2010 campaign during which he was a very strong back-up catcher. He has increased his BB rate to 13.1%, and his ISO had increased to .231.
This sort of Isolated Power isn’t really supported by his history, but at age 27, it is possible for a player to hit his “power prime”, which means that some of that power increase may very well be sustainable.
Sadly now, we will never know how the 2013 season would have turned out for Cervelli. This injury will cost him a good deal of his Plate Appearances and may effect his swing even after his return.
Meanwhile, the Yankees will be bringing Austin Romine back to the Major Leagues. Romine has been covered in the Down on the Farm portion of the weekly update for several weeks.
On a base level, Romine has been productive offensively during the early Triple-A season. As previously discussed though, this offensive success seems like more smoke and mirrors than sustainable production based on his current peripheral statistics.
Romine’s BABIP is sitting at .448, which is astronomical compared to his career averages. This means that the .333 average he is carrying into the Majors is highly inflated at the moment.
Additionally, Romine has been Striking out more than he has in the past. Even with his stellar start at Triple-A, the man is hitting for almost no power. A .071 ISO is very poor power production. There has to be concerns about his ability to handle Major League pitching at this point.
Does all this mean that Romine is going to be a bad Catcher? Absolutely not. Defensively he has always been a very good player. Overall, Austin Romine is the closest of the Yankee prospects to being ready for action in the Bronx – so he will split time with Chris Stewart while Cervelli’s hand heals.
Stewart is the other Yankee option at catcher in the short term. Over the last three years, the Yankee back-up catcher has served in part-time roles for both San Francisco and New York.
The light hitting back-stop is another player whose value comes largely on the defensive end of the game. Stewart does not Strikeout much and the most interesting statistic of his early season is the change in the 31-year olds contact percentages.
Traditionally a player with a high Fly Ball Rate, Stewart is hitting more line drives and ground balls. The increase in the line drive percentage indicates that he is “squaring up” pitches better.
Whether or not this trend is a product of the small sample size of Plate Appearances or a larger change in approach, it is unlikely that a change in offensive talent would suddenly emerge at this point in his career.
Until mid or late June, Chris Stewart and Austin Romine will be responsible for handling the Yankees staff and producing enough offense to help keep the Yankees winning ball games. The injury bug continues to be the story of the early 2013 season.
Chris Stewart is the only back-stop on the Yankees’ roster with Major League Experience. As such, the team will lean on him to keep the staff moving forward in the manner that they have begun the season.
On the rotation end of things, Ivan Nova has been the black sheep of the early season. His inability to keep opposing hitters off the base paths has been a point of contention repeatedly addressed in this space over the last month.
Now, due to a right triceps injury, Yankee fans will have the opportunity to examine two younger pitchers, one they have seen a lot of and another that is a new name to most in the Bronx.
In every sport, the fans most popular player is the one who they can “dream” on. David Phelps has been that player in early 2013. Phelps key to success is simple. He is a Strikeout Pitcher.
The Yankee long man turned fifth starter relies heavily on the strike out to provide his value. The huge benefit of Phelps’ game is the 29% K Rate. When he is right, he is limiting base runners and striking out about a batter an Inning.
When most people hear “strike out” artist, they become highly excited. While I have furthered the idea that Phelps should be given the opportunity to compete with Nova, we shouldn’t pretend that Phelps doesn’t have his fair share of warts.
Two big issues pop-up when we examine Phelps closely. The first problem is an absolutely atrocious 10.5% BB rate. This number indicates that Phelps may have the same issue that drove Yankees’ fans crazy with Ivan Nova. A high Strikeout rate is not as useful if base runners are walking at that type of rate.
Also, when examining the Yankees new fifth starter, a 26.1% Line Drive Rate causes substantial concern. Line drives of all hits normally lead to the most runs. The combination of a very high walk rate and a high line drive rate is disconcerting.
With that being said, certainly Phelps deserves the first look in Nova’s spot, and if he can strike out batters the way he has out of the pen, he may never give that spot back.
The Yankees new fifth starter will have to rely on his strong strike out rates to carry him. His other statistics leave something to be desired.
Taking Phelps’ spot in the bullpen is another player we have touched base on several times in the “Down on the Farm” segment. Vidal Nuno is a New York Yankee after dominating the first month in Triple-A Scranton.
There is not much to say about Nuno besides the fact that he has been absolutely spectacular this season. A 30.6% K Rate. A 2.4% BB Rate. Just an unbelievable month for Vidal.
There are two overwhelming questions for the Yankees newest south paw:
1) Will he be able to effectively change positions from a starting pitcher to a bullpen piece; and 2) will Major League hitters have the same type of issues with Nuno’s stuff that the Triple-A batters have had?
It will be exciting to see Nuno’s performance now that he is with the big league club. Manager Joe Girardi has stated all season that he wanted an extra left hander in the bullpen. Now he has Nuno. Let’s see how Joey G handles his newest asset.
The story of the fourth week has to be the Yankees late week sweep of their division rivals the Toronto Blue Jays.
The Jays were the big news makers during the Hot Stove Season based on their blockbuster trades with the Marlins and Mets where they acquired Jose Reyes (currently on the DL), Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, Emilio Bonifacio and R.A. Dickey.
Many Yankee fans pointed to these 7 April games against the re-made Blue Jays as a significant problem for the short-handed Yankees. The Pinstripes have answered that challenge by winning 6 out of 7 games from Toronto.
As April comes the close, the Yankees find themselves fighting for the division thanks to strong pitching, timely hitting and statistically improbable ability to keep notching comeback wins. The theme in the A.L. East this April seems to be that winning November and December only gets you so far.
The Yankees were projected by many experts to fall off significantly in many offensive categories with injuries to Jeter, Granderson, Teixeira, Rodriguez, with the additional losses of Ibanez, Martin and Swisher. Instead, with the likes of Wells, Hafner, Overbay and Youkilis admirably filling in well, the Bronx Bombers can still lay claim to the title. Heading into May – the Yanks are tied with the Cleveland Indians – for the AL lead in HRs (36).
*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com and their partners***
A big thank-you goes out to Our ‘Trade and Yankees Correspondent’ Nicholas Rossoletti for preparing today’s featured article. Nicholas is a young professional living in downtown Miami. He is a lifelong baseball fan and an avid Yankee supporter.
Having grown up during the last two decades, he counts Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera as his favorite ball players of all time. He believes in sabermetrics and that new stats have already changed the way the baseball industry sees players.
He was for Trout over Cabrera, he thinks RBIs tell you a lot more about a team than a player and that defense and pitching, ultimately, win championships. Rational thought and introspective analysis over the narrative is how we come to understand the game we love.
The narrative is just a way to keep those who don’t really love the game watching. Feel free to follow Nicholas on twitter and talk the game of baseball Follow @NRoss56
“There are three things in my life which I really love: God, my family, and baseball. The only problem – once baseball season starts, I change the order around a bit.” ~ Al Gallagher, 1971
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